Vietinbank Securities has published the Weekly Investment Strategy Report on 11th December, 2023 with the executive summary presented below:
- In the December policy meeting, the Fed decided to keep interest rates at 5.25% – 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Along with this decision, the Fed expects to cut interest rates at least 3 times in 2024. After the news that the Fed will cut interest rates more than expected, optimism has returned to the market. Global stock indices such as Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc., all reacted positively. The DXY index, in particular, recorded a sharp decline and closed the week at 102.6 points.
- During the week, foreign investors continued their net selling trend, and ETF funds underwent restructuring. The market faced increased selling pressure, with buying interest not showing signs of improvement, causing the VN-Index to decrease by nearly 2%, closing the week at 1,102 points. A positive sign came from a significant reduction in liquidity and average trading value per session compared to the previous week, with values reaching 15,529 billion VND and 774 million shares, respectively. In terms of sectors, there were indications of capital outflows from the financial services (-2.82%) and oil and gas (-2.64%) sectors.
- With the forecast of stable USD/VND exchange rates in 2024 after the Fed announced plans to cut interest rates three times in the December policy meeting and deposit interest rates continue to be kept low, funds are expected to continue flowing strongly into the stock market. The VN-Index is anticipated to move sideways in the range of 1,095 – 1,125 points during the week of December 18-22, 2023. Investors are advised to maintain a stock/cash ratio of 30/70
- Increase the stock/cash ratio if the VN-Index can overcome the essential resistance level at 1.133 points
- If the VN-Index can’t overcome the essential resistance level at 1.133 points and lose the support level at 1.082 points due to higher regulatory pressure, investors are recommented to increase the stock/cash ratio when the index returns to test at the bottom level of 1.020 points in November with the possibility of forming a double bottom scenario.
- Some of the noteworthy stock groups at this time include:
- Bluechips: VIC, VRE, VIC, KBC, GEX, PVD, POW
- If the market accumulates stably the money flow can circulate strongly into some speculative industry groups, including:
- Securities: VND, SSI, SHS
- Real estate: KDH, NLG, DIG
- Infrastructure investment: VCG, HHV, KSB
