Vietinbank Securities has published the Weekly Investment Strategy Report on 15th January, 2024 with the executive summary presented below:
- According to the report from the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 0.3% in December compared to the previous month, higher than the economists’ forecast of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 3.9% compared to the same period last year, while economists had predicted figures of 0.3% and 3.8%, respectively. Inflation in the US is accelerating just as Fed officials forecasted easing price pressures. If inflation continues to rise, the Fed may not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates further in March 2024.
- In the past week, despite foreign investors returning to a selling trend, money continued to pour strongly into the stock market, boosting liquidity and the average trading value per session, reaching values of 943 million shares and 19,694 billion VND, respectively. However, increasing profit-taking pressure has caused the index to fluctuate within the range of 1,155 – 1,165 points. In terms of industry groups, funds flowed strongly into the insurance group (4.32%) and the banking sector (3.96%).
- With the continued upward trend of the USD/VND exchange rate after the release of the US CPI index for December and the market experiencing a prolonged uptrend, many stocks have shown good profit margins. The VN-Index is expected to continue to face volatility around the 1,165 point mark and experience strong differentiation as several bills are expected to be passed during the extraordinary National Assembly session in mid-January 2024. Investors are recommended to increase a stock/cash ratio at 80/20. If the upward momentum and positive sentiment persist, the market may target the next resistance level at 1,200 points. In the event of significant selling pressure around the 1,165-point level and an inability to sustain the upward trend, investors might consider taking advantage of a market correction scenario towards the 1,130-point level to increase their stock holdings.
- Some of the noteworthy stock groups at this time include:
- Government Infrastructure: HHV
- Securities: HCM, SHS, VIX
- Real estate: TCH, DIG
- Retail: DGW
- Steel: HSG
- Bank: ACB, SSB, VIB
- Others: GVR, PNJ, GEX
