Vietinbank Securities has published the Weekly Investment Strategy Report on 19th February, 2024 with the executive summary presented below:
- According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US has increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 3.1% compared to the same period last year, higher than the forecast of economists of 0.2% and 2.9% respectively. The Fed is expecting inflation to return to its target of 2%, as they believe that housing prices will decline this year. The stronger-than-expected increase in January could be a major concern, as the central bank is trying to loosen monetary policy – something that has been tightened the most in over two decades.
- During the past week, funds continued to flow into the market, boosting liquidity and average trading value per session slightly, reaching values of 774 million shares and 17.394 trillion dong, respectively. The VN-Index successfully surpassed the resistance level of 1,200 points with the support of capital inflows, ending the week at 1,209 points, up 0.98% compared to the previous week. In terms of sectors, funds were seen flowing strongly into the media sector (1.83%) and basic resources (1.69%).
- With the domestic exchange rate starting to show signs of increasing back to levels equivalent to the late 2023 period and profit-taking pressure tending to rise from the end of last week, investor sentiment is expected to become more cautious. The VN-Index is expected to fluctuate around the resistance level of 1,220 points during the week of February 19th to 23rd, 2024. Investors are advised to increase their equity/cash ratio to 80/20 while monitoring market developments at the 1,212-point level.
- If this resistance level is surpassed with sustained positive inflows of funds, the index is likely to continue its upward trend and head towards the resistance zone of 1,247 to 1,255 points.
- In case the index fails to surpass this resistance level, it is likely to retreat to the short-term support at 1,174 points and consolidate around this level.
- Some of the noteworthy stock groups at this time include:
- Government Infrastructure: HHV
- Securities: HCM, SHS, VIX, SSI
- Real estate: TCH, DIG
- Retail: DGW, MWG
- Steel: HSG
- Bank: ACB, SSB, VIB, TPB
- Textile: TNG
- Industrialized Real Estate: IDC
- Energy: PC1
- Others: GVR, PNJ, GEX, DBC
