Vietinbank Securities has published the Weekly Investment Strategy Report on 2nd May, 2024 with the executive summary presented below:
- On April 25, the US Department of Commerce announced that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year in the first quarter of 2024, down from the 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Federal Reserve officials stated that it will take some time for low economic growth to fully alleviate pressure on prices and the growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 is in line with that trajectory. This further reinforces the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Fed, scheduled to begin in September, with a 58% probability according to data from the CME Tool.
- During the past week, the easing tension in the Middle East and the exchange rate between the USD and VND helped the VN-Index recover with a 2.95% increase compared to the previous week. However, this upward trend did not receive support from the influx of funds, as both liquidity and average transaction value per session sharply decreased compared to the previous period, reaching values of 700 million shares and 16,592 billion VND, respectively.
- With cautiousness prevailing in the current market sentiment and increased attention on the Fed’s May policy meeting amid the resurgence of inflation in the US, the market anticipates a sideways movement within a narrow range of 1,200 to 1,220 points in the week of May 2nd to May 3rd, 2024. Investors are advised to maintain a 30/70 allocation between stocks and cash.
- Investors are taking profit on stocks they bought at the bottom earlier, as the current rebound is not suitable for initiating new strong buying positions but rather for short-term trading.
- In case the index confirms successful bottom fishing activity and validates long-term support in the range of 1,170 to 1,175 points, investors are advised to increase their position in stocks belonging to suitable price ranges with ample room for price appreciation.
- Some of the noteworthy stock groups at this time include:
- Government Infrastructure: HHV, CII, KSB
- Securities: HCM, SHS, VIX, SSI, VND
- Real estate: TCH, DIG, CEO
- Retail: DGW, MWG, MSN
- Steel: HSG, HPG
- Bank: ACB, CTG, VIB, TPB, VPB, VCB, STB
- Textile: TNG, GIL
- Industrialized Real Estate: IDC
- Energy: PC1
- Petrolium: BSR
- Others: PNJ, GEX, DBC, HAX
