Vietinbank Securities has published the Weekly Investment Strategy Report on 25th December, 2023 with the executive summary presented below:
- On December 21st, the US Department of Commerce revised down the estimate for the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 4.9%, instead of the previously forecasted 5.2%, but still the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021. The downward adjustment is attributed to weaker consumer spending and imports compared to the earlier report. However, there are still factors driving the economy, such as consumption, inventory investment, exports, and government spending at the federal, state, and local levels. The third-quarter GDP figures indicate that the growth trend continues, especially in terms of consumption.
- In the past week, the VN-Index recorded a sideways and accumulative movement, fluctuating within the range of 1,082 to 1,130 points, accompanied by a cautious market sentiment. Short-term selling pressure persists, but there are optimistic signs of increased participation of funds, suggesting a potential slight upward movement in the short term. The VN-Index is showing signs of recovery as the Stochastic indicator indicates buying signals from the oversold zone. Therefore, there is a high likelihood of a short-term rebound and price increase.
- The market liquidity shows a slight decrease compared to the average of the last 10 trading sessions, with funds displaying a tendency to diverge and not concentrating specifically on any leading stock group. This indicates that new money entering the market is exhibiting a degree of caution.
- Trading strategy: Increase the allocation of stocks/cash at the 50/50 threshold.
- Increase allocation: If the index breaks below the support level of 1,082 points under increasing correction pressure, investors may consider increasing the stock/cash ratio to 70/30 when the VN-Index revisits the price support level of 1,020 points from November, with the possibility of forming a double-bottom scenario.
- Short-term trading strategy: Open new positions in the range of 1,082 to 1,087 points and take profits as the index returns to the range of 1,123 to 1,125 points, with a proactive stop-loss threshold if the VN-Index falls below the 1,070-point level.
- Watchlist: Short-term potential gainers in the current phase:
- Blue chips: PNJ, GEX
- If the market stabilizes and consolidates, new funds may potentially rotate heavily towards the speculative sectors.
- Stock: HCM, SHS
- Real estate: TCH, DIG
- Seaport: HAH
- Steel: HSG
