Vietinbank Securities has published the Weekly Investment Strategy Report on 11th March, 2024 with the executive summary presented below:
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech on March 7th indicated that Fed officials remain very concerned about the risks from inflation and do not want to loosen policy too quickly. The market is expecting the Fed to begin raising interest rates from June 2024 and to reduce them by 4 times this year (25 basis points each time). Meanwhile, the Fed forecasts 3 interest rate cuts. The DXY index also recorded a decrease of 1.15% over the past week and closed at 102.7 points.
- In the past week, money continued to flow strongly into the market during the beginning of the week before sudden selling pressure surged in the session on March 8th in the VN30 group, causing the VN-Index to decrease by 0.87% compared to the previous week, closing at 1,047 points. Meanwhile, liquidity and the average trading value per session both saw significant increases, reaching values of 1,124 million shares and 27,089 billion VND, respectively. The strongest outflows of money were observed in the automobile and spare parts group (-0.54%) and the banking group (-0.45%).
- With the increasing pressure to take profits from the previous week combined with the USD/VND exchange rate on the free market maintaining at record-high levels, investor sentiment is expected to become more cautious, leading the market to anticipate a decline in the week of March 11th to March 15th, with the nearest support level at around 1,245 – 1,250 points. Investors are advised to reduce their equity/cash ratio to 70/30, consider purchasing new stocks, and closely monitor market developments at the 1,245 – 1,250 range.
- In the event that the index shows strong buying pressure at the support level and does not breach this support, there is a high likelihood that the market will begin forming a new base at this level.
- In case this support fails to hold effectively, the market will likely retreat to the next support level at the range 1,228 – 1,233 points.
- Some of the noteworthy stock groups at this time include:
- Government Infrastructure: HHV
- Securities: HCM, SHS, VIX, SSI, VND
- Real estate: TCH, DIG
- Retail: DGW, MWG, MSN
- Steel: HSG
- Bank: ACB, SSB, VIB, TPB, VPB
- Textile: TNG
- Industrialized Real Estate: IDC
- Energy: PC1
- Petrolium: BSR
- Others: GVR, PNJ, GEX, DBC
